Insurance Deductible Scenario Simulator Compare high- and low-deductible plans with multi-year Monte Carlo distributions
Step 1: Enter your medical-cost assumptions
Enter your own estimate of annual medical or claim costs. This tool does not ship with, invent, or imply an authoritative illness-rate database. Higher volatility means costs can swing more from year to year.
Plan A: high deductible / lower premium
Plan B: low deductible / higher premium
Multi-year total-cost probability histogram
The same random medical-cost path is applied to both plans for a fair side-by-side comparison.
Honest-use note
This is a scenario simulator, not insurance, medical, or financial advice. Use your own household, employer, or policy data and verify plan terms with a qualified adviser or insurer.
What is the Insurance Deductible Scenario Simulator?
This free calculator compares two insurance designs with a multi-year Monte Carlo method. Enter premiums, deductibles, out-of-pocket maximums and coinsurance, then provide your own estimate of annual medical spending. Instead of a single break-even point, you get a distribution of possible total costs.
Why probability matters
Insurance decisions mix ordinary years with rare expensive years. A high-deductible plan may win often by saving premium, while a lower-deductible plan can reduce the painful tail of the distribution. Mean, median, percentiles and the chance that Plan A is cheaper make that trade-off concrete.
Use your own assumptions
The tool does not invent illness or accident probabilities. Verify your employer benefits, policy wording and claim history; for background, see Insurance, Coinsurance and Healthcare.gov.
Related tools
For broader planning, try DCA vs lump-sum simulator and debt payoff strategy simulator.
You might also need