Калькулятор расширенной гарантии Оцените расширенную гарантию через ожидаемую ценность EV и порог вероятности поломки
Step 1: Enter your warranty assumptions
The amount you must pay up front for the extended warranty.
Used for context only; the probability below should cover the same period.
This is your subjective estimate. The tool does not provide brand or model failure rates.
Use the realistic out-of-pocket cost without the extended warranty.
Amount you still pay when making a claim. Leave 0 if none.
Maximum payout. Leave 0 for no stated cap.
Only for context; EV is based on expected claim value minus warranty price.
Step 2: Expected value result
Honest calculation notice
- This tool does not include any brand, store, product or model failure-rate database.
- Expected value is an average calculation; it cannot guarantee what will happen in one individual case.
- An extended warranty can still have non-monetary value such as convenience, risk reduction and peace of mind.
How to decide whether an extended warranty is worth it
An extended warranty is often sold as peace of mind, but the cleanest financial lens is expected value: multiply your own estimated probability of failure by the repair or replacement cost the warranty would actually cover, then subtract the warranty price. This calculator is intentionally honest: it is a front-end EV calculator, not a secret database of brand or model failure rates.
For example, if the warranty costs 4,000, you estimate a 12% failure chance, and the claimable loss is 15,000, the expected claim value is 1,800 and net EV is -2,200. That is not favorable on average, although convenience, cash-flow protection, or psychological comfort may still matter.
Why the break-even failure probability matters
The most useful output is the failure probability required for the warranty to start making mathematical sense. For broader consumer context, see Wikipedia on extended warranties and the U.S. FTC guide to warranties, especially exclusions, deductibles and claim limits.
Honest limits of this tool
- No brand, store, product, or model failure-rate database is included.
- EV is an average, not a guarantee for one purchase.
- For wider money decisions, compare cash-flow priorities with our debt payoff strategy simulator.
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